International breaks in FPL are like extremely morbid versions of Extreme Makeover: Home Edition.
You leave your house (i.e. your fantasy team) for a few days, but instead of arriving back to a fresh, better-looking haunt, you are presented with a wasteland, as if your home has been repossessed by some satanic corporation.
When our Premier League stars go and play for their countries, a raft of them emerge as confirmed absentees or, worse, are declared to have picked up the dreaded ‘little niggle.’
However, the break we’ve just witnessed has been relatively forgiving, with Jamie Vardy the only new high-profile, ultra-bandwagon-leader shrouded in a cloud of (mild) darkness. In fact, it is the last hiatus of league football that still leaves us scratching our heads.
That was, of course, the dark occurrence of Sergio Aguero’s torn hamstring on Argentina duty immediately after banging in five goals in a 65 minute appearance against Newcastle.
Aguero is stretchered off on international duty. Image: Natacha Pisarenko / AP/Press Association Images
Aguero trained yesterday (so did Silva, but who cares about him right now). This poses a pretty large problem for us. Even with the absence of the Argentine, we had an embarrassment of riches in the striker department of late, with Jamie Vardy and Odion Ighalo providing unprecedented value in the bargain bin and Romelu Lukaku and Graziano Pelle similarly impressive in light of their price tags.
But the big reason Ageuro’s return to fitness complicates things is because one Harry Kane has come right into consideration at the very same time. With five goals in three games and a fixture list as unbelievable as Roy Keane making a Saipan joke, Kane looked to be target number one for our teams when it became clear that Aguero wouldn’t travel to South America during the break.
But, with the fitness situation over at the Etihad suddenly becoming clear, we have a two-way shootout between Kane and Aguero for what will, oddly, be a final striker spot.
Feel free to bask in deserved smugness should you be a Kane owner with funds put aside for Aguero, but the reality is that the most common frontline in the game right now is Vardy, Lukaku and Pelle. And an even clearer reality is that most managers won’t have put any cash away for this monsoon that currently envelopes our thinking.
The fantasy football environment we lived in a number of weeks ago is totally different to this situation. We lavished funds on our midfields, avoiding the use of a ‘cheap fifth midfielder’, due to the fact that we could live off the returns of a cheap trio of forwards.
Now, two premium-priced strikers have come rushing into view and our tactics must change accordingly – it is time for us to start downgrading our midfields.
The likes of Alexis Sanchez and Kevin de Bruyne now seem like perfect selling material, while the injured Dimitri Payet should also be downgraded to boost the cash reserves.
Generating that amount of money with as little transfers used as possible is going to be a problem. It means prioritising Kane or Aguero.
It seems the common option may be to hop on this proven Kane bandwagon and wait for Aguero to get minutes and goals under his belt before pouncing on him. But remember last time he scored? He blanked in five consecutive games before scoring five in one game.
You don’t predict when Sergio Aguero scores, you leave him in your team and captain him most weeks, and then he decides when he’ll churn out absurd numbers for you.
That being said, this is a man just returning from injury with Champions League action around the corner. There is a question about his starting berth. Going without him for the clash with Liverpool this weekend isn’t an outrageous idea.
All things considered, the ideal tactic would be to somehow get yourself into a situation where you have Harry Kane in your starting XI this week, ensuring that he will be joined there by Sergio Aguero by the time next weekend comes around.
The sense is that Harry Kane’s explosiveness could reignite at any moment, while Aguero could well be in a state of dormancy. However, as we’ve seen this season, an eruption of points from the Argentine is simply impossible to time.
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Gameweek 13
Everton and Crystal Palace lead the way in our thinking this week for options outside of the heavy-hitters.
Everton’s strong run continues as the welcome Villa to Goodison. While Romelu Lukaku continues to look the outstanding option, Gerard Deulofeu is sure to gather a lot of attention with money-generation projects in full flow. He's got a goal and four assists in his last three starts and has had a sublime international break with Spain under-21s. His stock is rising.
Image: Jon Super / AP/Press Association Images
Crystal Palace's defence looks the best area of their team to invest in. They host a Sunderland side who can't seem to score on the road. Scott Dann at £5.2 million looks as good as any option out there right now, with perhaps the exception of Man United’s defence.
All that being said, Yannick Bolasie’s scoring exploits of late will have good opportunity to continue this week. At £6.1 mil, he looks excellent value.
Georginio Wijnaldum is still on radars. The £7.0 mil man is up against Leicester this weekend so returns wouldn't be a surprise.
Arsenal's fixtures are suddenly looking extremely appealing. Hector Bellerin is the defender of choice this weekend after his return to fitness and the likely absence of Laurent Koscielny.
In attack, Mesut Ozil looks most likely to do damage against West Brom this weekend. He is now above Alexis Sanchez in the fantasy thinking, with finances now at a stretch for managers.
Speaking of which, Manuel Lanzini (£5.3 mil) and Dele Alli (£5.2 mil) are firmly in our thinking. The former will surely benefit from Payet’s absence, while Alli looks assured of game time and comes into this weekend on the back of that wondrous goal for England.
That's the pair you should be keeping a close eye on this weekend if you're chasing that Sergio Aguero pocket money.
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