We’ve arrived at the first pivotal landmark of this fantasy football season. It’s a week where a new word gets added to our fantasy jargon, a term that is so central to all our plans and the main motive for any sensible decision.
That word is ‘form.’
We can now confidently tell our mates in the pub: “Riyad Mahrez is gonna win the golden boot!”, “Rooney’s not gonna score any goals!” and “Liverpool are gonna keep loads of clean sheets!”
Of course, some (all) of these predictions may not materialise but they sound a hell of a lot less ridiculous than they would have done a week ago.
In fact, now would be a prime example of when taking a points hit would be acceptable.
For those new to the official Fantasy Premier League game, here’s a brief explainer:
- You get one free transfer every week.
- If you do not use this one free transfer, it passes over to the following week so you have two free transfers.
- If you use neither of your two free transfers, tough luck, because that’s the max you get - you’ll still have just two free transfers the week after (the same as if you spent one transfer the previous week).
- Every time you play a transfer that is not included in your free transfer allowance, four points are deducted from your Gameweek total.
A general rule of thumb is that you should only take a four point hit if you are confident that the player you’re bringing in will outscore the outgoing player by at least 4 points in the coming Gameweek. Considering a clean sheet is worth only four points, this is why most people avoid taking a hit on a defender.
However, there is a case to be made for taking a hit outside this realm, too. The fantasy stock market is a fascinatingly nerdy aspect to the game that allows player prices to fluctuate -we’ll explain this in a future article equipped with tonnes of rubbish Wolf of Wall Street comparisons throughout.
At this stage of the season, taking a hit to bring in a player whose value is rising to get rid of a player with falling stock is often a good move. The logic behind this would be that the money you would garner from spending points on a transfer like this would translate into spending money that will, in future weeks, help you reclaim those four points thanks to looser purse strings.
Specifically, using extra transfers coming up to Gameweek 3 appears to be sensible business as it allows us to restructure our team ahead of Man City’s beautiful run of fixtures from Gameweek 4. For next week, we all need to have Sergio Aguero and probably one City midfielder in our teams if we are to sleep sound at night. With home games against Watford, West Ham, Newcastle and Bournemouth in the six fixtures following this week’s trip to Goodison, it’s time to start thinking about how appropriately to shuffle your deck.
Manchester City's Sergio Aguero celebrates scoring his sides first goal against Chelsea last weekend. Picture by: Peter Byrne / PA Wire/Press Association Images
If you can’t afford Aguero, now might be a good time to take a hit to move some funds around as the upshot is simply too good. If the points hit happens to involve the departure of an underperforming player (*cough* Wayne Rooney *cough*), then it makes the decision even easier. Hit that ‘confirm transfers’ button quicker than John Terry can make his form plummet.
Gameweek 3
Our tip Dimitri Payet came through last week as he bagged his first goal in the Premier League. West Ham host Bournemouth this week so expect those points to keep on coming. He might even be in contention for your captain’s armband.
Interested in a Hammers forward? Keep faith in Diafra Sakho – he was unlucky not to return anything last week; it’s got to be a matter of time, right?
Also hold on your Crystal Palace assets. For now. They host Villa this weekend and giving any of their defence a starting spot in your team would be highly advisable. Remarkably, it’s taken just two games for defenders Joel Ward, Damien Delaney and Pape Soaré to all provide attacking returns. However, be careful about purchasing new Palace assets. After this weekend, they’ve got City, Chelsea then Spurs in a trio of fixtures that present little chance of defensive returns. Get planning your Palace exit strategies for next week, then.
Stoke are a team that present really good value and have the fixtures to match. Home ties with West Brom, Leicester and Bournemouth follow in the space of the four weeks after this weekend’s trip to Norwich.
Mame Biram Diouf looks like a real differential option at this stage. After bagging his first goal of the season last week, the £6.5m man is still owned by just 2.7% of managers. A great third striker option.
If you’re feeling extra brave, though, Stephen Ireland could be your man. Owned by a measly 0.1%, the Irishman is priced at £5.0m and could free up plenty of cash while also providing a real chance of points if he cements his place in the Potters’ lineup. His game-changing performance off the bench last week should hopefully persuade Mark Hughes.
On the topic of (semi) Irish players, Scott Sinclair’s poor start to the season may open the door for Jack Grealish to get a run-out in Villa’s attack. An out of position option who’s dropped to £5.4m, he could prove to be a shrewd acquisition but, with a slight injury and still no guarantee of a start, he’s a wait and see option.
Finally, a word of warning about Everton: Don’t be fooled after last week’s cruise in Southampton. Unless, of course, you think City, Chelsea and Spurs will be opened up by Roberto Martinez’s side in the next three Gameweeks.
I know, I feel you. It is truly heartbreaking when a form team just doesn’t have the fixtures to go on a good fantasy run.
You can hear Eoin Sheahan every week on Team 33 give his opinions on the world of Fantasy Football
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